Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia     

Tesfahun BERHANE  Aemiro SHIBABAW  Gurju AWGICHEW 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(4):415-423

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.  相似文献   

Responding to Global Warming: Mitigation Policies and Actions of Stakeholders in China’s Tourism Industry     

FENG Ling  CHEN Da  GAO Shan  WANG Yongzhi  TANG Chengcai 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(1):94-103

China’s tourism industry has witnessed rapid progress in recent years, and is now an important part of global tourism in dealing with climate change. Within a framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR), this paper focuses on the emission reduction pressure, carbon emission status, and responses of stakeholders in China’s tourism industry. Findings include: 1) The central government’s strategy and rapid growth of the industry scale exert rising pressure on China’s tourism to reduce carbon emissions. 2) Carbon emissions of China's tourism account for 13%-14.6% of global tourism, and about 3% of China’s emissions overall. Chinese tourists’ per capita carbon emission is lower than half of the global level. 3) The Chinese government attaches great importance to energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. In the tourism industry, documents, standards and other regulative measures have been issued to ensure that business practitioners set up green operational and managerial systems. In the field of tourism transportation, China's high-speed rail, new energy vehicles, and urban shared bicycles, have developed very rapidly in recent years, and they have effectively reduced the carbon emissions in traveling. Furthermore, this paper finds that Chinese tourists already have awareness and willingness for low-carbon tourism.  相似文献   

Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (H_s) and spectral peak period (T_p), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states.  相似文献   

An improved analytical approach for simulating the lateral kinematic distress of deepwater offshore pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Offshore pipelines are critical infrastructures and any possible damage may have devastating financial and environmental consequences. Earthquake-related geohazards (such as strong ground motion, active seismic faults, submarine landslides and debris flows) consist crucial threats that an offshore pipeline has to overcome. The main aim of the current study is to examine analytically a seabed-laid offshore pipeline subjected to a lateral kinematic distress due to a submarine landslide or a debris flow. Extra emphasis is given on the impact of pipe-soil interaction on the pipe response, by the realistic representation of the soil resistance via a tri-linear model. Firstly, the proposed analytical model is validated with a numerical model utilizing the finite-element method. Subsequently, various combinations of soil parameters and loading conditions that affect the examined problem are investigated with realistic input data taken from the offshore section of the high-pressure natural-gas pipeline TAP (Trans Adriatic Pipeline) in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, useful conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.  相似文献   

Numerical Study on Tidal Mixing in the Bohai Sea     

Yifei Zhao  Ting Yu  Hu Wang 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(1):46-63

The spatial and temporal variability of tidal mixing in Bohai Sea is studied using a numerical approach. In calculating tidal mixing, accurate barotropic tidal current is obtained via a harmonic analysis package utilizing the simulated current output from a high-resolution regional ocean model. And a “small-scale” roughness map is adopted to describe the detailed topographic features of Bohai Sea. It is shown that the tidal mixing estimated in Bohai Sea is much higher than the level of global background, and fluctuates considerably at some regions within a single day. In Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay and Bohai Strait, the mixing varies greatly, with the peak value of O (10^?2) m² s^?1. The order of magnitude of mixing in Laizhou Bay is about O (10^?5～10^?3) m² s^?1. Mixing with background level of O (10^?5) m² s^?1 only appears in central area. Result also shows that rough topography plays relatively a more important role than tidal current in enhancing diapycnal mixing in Bohai Sea. The distributions of tidal mixing in selected sections reveal that the vertical stratification in Bohai Sea is not obvious, generally renders a barotropic structure.  相似文献   

珠江三角洲地区登革热流行风险空间模拟与预测     

郑斓  任红艳  施润和  鲁亮 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(3):407-416

近年来日益严重的登革热疫情已在中国南部地区形成疫情高发区,并对中国的公共卫生安全形成了一定的威胁。登革热主要受到区域内复杂的自然环境条件以及社会经济因素的影响,而利用地理空间分析方法和模型探究登革热疫情的影响因素,并对其未来流行风险的空间分布进行模拟,是有效开展登革热预防控制工作的重要基础。本文收集了珠江三角洲地区2010-2014年的登革热病例资料和土地利用、人口密度两种社会经济要素数据,构建土地利用回归（LUR）模型以分析登革热疫情与不同空间范围内的土地利用和人口密度之间的关系,并结合SLEUTH模型获取的2030年土地利用数据以及基于人口密度预测模型获取的2030年人口密度数据,预测珠江三角洲地区2030年登革热疫情风险的空间分布。结果表明,社会经济要素对登革热疫情空间分布的影响在不同范围内存在差异,半径分别为10、7、10、2和1 km的缓冲区内的人口密度、草地、城镇用地、林地和耕地进入LUR模型并对疫情有显著的影响（相关系数分别为0.779、-0.473、0.818、-0.642和-0.403）,所构建的LUR模型效果较好（调整R²为0.796,F=390.409,P<0.01）,留一交叉检验结果显示模型的相对均方根误差为0.7046,预测值与实测值的拟合精度达到0.7101。2030年城市空间扩展的区域主要分布在深圳、东莞以及广佛的交界地区,而登革热风险预测模型表明2030年登革热疫情风险较大的区域与珠江三角洲城镇用地占比、人口分布较高的地区有高度的一致性,尤其是广佛地区。因此,LUR模型可以较好地预测登革热疫情的空间分布,从而为当地卫生部门防控登革热提供方法支持。  相似文献   

不等式约束Partial EIV模型的WHP拟牛顿修正解法及其精度评定的SUT法     

王乐洋  邹传义  吴璐璐 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(6):648-653

提出一种确定不等式约束Partial EIV模型解及精度评定的新方法，在总体最小二乘准则下，将附有不等式约束的Partial EIV模型转换为标准最优化问题。采取WHP拟牛顿修正的SQP方法求解，并利用SUT法对参数估值进行精度评定，可以减小迭代次数、提高收敛速度，且精度评定方法简单有效。  相似文献   

Effects of long-term cyclic horizontal loading on bucket foundations in saturated loose sand     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

A 1-g model experimental study was conducted to investigate the accumulated rotations and unloading stiffness of bucket foundations in saturated loose sand. One-way horizontal cyclic loading was applied to model bucket foundations with embedment ratios 0.5 and 1.0. Up to 10⁴ cycles of loading were applied at a frequency of 0.2 Hz varying load amplitudes. The accumulated rotation of the bucket foundations increased with the number of cycles and the load amplitudes. Empirical equations were proposed to describe the accumulated rotation of the foundations. The unloading stiffness of foundations increased with the number of cycles but decreased with an increase in load amplitude. The initial unloading stiffness of L/D = 1.0 (L is skirt length; D is foundation diameter) was approximately twice that of L/D = 0.5. Excess pore water pressure difference of 50% was observed between L/D = 0.5 and 1.0. The suction and static capacity of the bucket increased with increase of bucket embedment ratio with a difference of 69.5% and 73.6% respectively between L/D = 0.5 and 1.0.  相似文献   

A Review for the Thermophysics and the Yarkovsky and YORP Effects of Asteroidstwo     

Jiang Hao-xuan  Ji Jiang-hui 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(1):1-22

The thermophysics of asteroids has become an important frontier for the research of asteroids in recent years. In this paper, we have introduced the thermophysical models commonly used in this field, by using these thermophysical models and combining with the data observed by the space or ground-based IR telescopes, some thermophysical parameters of asteroids, such as the thermal inertia, geometric albedo, effective diameter, surface roughness, and surface temperature, etc., can be derived. We have mentioned also the shape model and IR observation of asteroids, as well as the obtained thermophysical parameters for a part of asteroids. These thermophysical parameters can be further applied to studying the asteroids’ Yarkovsky effect, YORP effect, and so on, even can provide the relevant information for the spacecraft landing on the asteroid surface and the return mission of a spacecraft after the asteroid sampling.  相似文献   

Study on deepwater conductor jet excavation mechanism in cohesive soil     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Conductor casing jetting technique has been increasingly applied in deepwater drilling. The insight into the jetting excavation mechanisms is critical in guiding a successful conductor casing jetting operation. The real- time continuous jet excavation process is simulated with the volume of fluid (VOF) multiphase method of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) ANSYS Fluent calculation software in the current study. The cohesive soil is modelled by using a kind of viscous fluid with Herschel-Bulkley model. In addition, a laboratory half round nozzle jet excavation test is designed for verification by comparison of the observed jet excavation profile with the numerical results. The sensitivity parameters affecting the conductor jetting excavation mechanism in cohesive soil are thus investigated. It is found that the application of Herschel-Bulkley (HB) model for cohesive soil and the VOF method of Fluent can provide a good simulation of jet excavation process. The maximum excavation depth can be determined by the undrained ultimate bearing capacity of the circular foundation with a bearing capacity factor of 6.7. The nozzle position, jet velocity and soil strength have significantly influence on the depth and width of the jet excavation profile in conductor oblique jet.  相似文献